I've got the 4 pick in a 12 team H2H. Assuming that A. Rod, D. Wright will be in the top 3 do I reach down a few spots and get Cabrera. I say this because before the draft comes back around to me R. Braun will be off the board as well. If I don't take him it leaves me out of the running for a top tier 3rd baseman.
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Past performance is not indicative of future success.
Never argue with an idiot. They drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.
PERSONALLY, I wouldn't reach for him when you have guys like Hanley, Reyes, Santana, Holliday and Pujols possibly sitting there. I think you'd be passing up a lot of production to get Miggy, when you could probably fill in with Atkins, ARam, Chipper - and not lose a ton of production. Just me...
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"It's what you've got inside that matters. The details and technological things will take you only so far. You still have to pedal the bike. Some people are always looking for the magic secret. There's no secret. Just bust your ass." -Dave Zabriskie
Not sure it would be too big a reach because the Tigers lineup is sick...although factor in Comerica park stealing some HRs from him this year.
If you pass on him in the 1st you could still grab a Zimmerman in the 3rd and pick up Longoria a bit later for when he is called up and has a Braun-ish second half of the season.
Looking at the top 12 in any position I think 1 vs. 12 has the biggest contrast at 1st base this year. Maybe you pick up Prince Fielder?
Also, in the league I'm in...I like to load up on outfielders early. If you wait to take a second baseman, as an example...you can still get a guy like Placido Polanco late. But wait for your outfield too long and you play against a guy with Holliday and Sizemore and you are trotting out with Austin Kearns and Aaron Rowand.
I disagree with the OF theory because you can get relatively decent production from the OF in the late rounds because of the sheer quantity of outfielders. Positions like 2B and C are scarce, because of the dropoff, and I'd prefer to have someone who's near the top.
That said, why is it that big of a deal for a top tier 3B? And what are the eligibility rules in your league? Braun is moving to LF.
I'd go with Santana. Weaker league. He's still a stud. It makes sense. At least to me right now. In 12 hours? Maybe not.
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Quoth David Banner: "Like a pimp"
It's not a beer belly. It's a gas tank for a sex machine.
Haven't played fantasy baseball in a couple years, but is David Wright really that likely to go in the Top 3 of most drafts? That's kind of surprising.
Ninja,
Totally disagree bud. Here is my thinking...let me know where you see flawed thought (seriously..because i haven't had my draft yet)
(according to CBS Sportsline) the # 34, 35 and 36 outfielders (so, would be starting in a 12 team league) are:
Jason Bay
Johnny Damon
Jeremy Hermida
If you wait and think you can fill the OF out too late and some other guys goes OF in 3 of the first 4 rounds...you could have those guys going up against the Sizemore, Granderson, and Vernon Wells (tried to pick 3 guys that you could get in consecutive rounds) as an example. You just get dominated there...whereas a position like 2B
#1 = Chase Utley
#12= Polanco
I see less of a dropoff in production there than in the outfield.
3rd Base
Well, yes you have Arod (although Deserve can't draft him)
#12 = Alex Gordon (or Blalock or Glaus or Mark Reynolds)
Again, i think the production there is better if you wait than if you wait on an OF
SS
#1 = Reyes
#12 = Renteria (or Hardy or Drew)
You lose steals but are you worse with Reyes vs. Renteria or Johnny Damon vs. Sizemore or Crawford.
Let me know what you think...I know you're a sports junkie!
Everything I've read said the Cabera could put up Pujols type numbers in the Tigers offense. I'm staying away from Pujols because I hate to take that risk with my number one pick.
I like Verlander I'm hoping he falls to me in the 5th round.
I tend to follow Nicks train of though about outfielders. I like to have one superstar and then fill in with good players in the later rounds.
__________________
Past performance is not indicative of future success.
Never argue with an idiot. They drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.
I just think in the first few 5, 8 rounds or so, you just take the best player that is available. Just my strategy, works for me...
E
__________________
"It's what you've got inside that matters. The details and technological things will take you only so far. You still have to pedal the bike. Some people are always looking for the magic secret. There's no secret. Just bust your ass." -Dave Zabriskie
I just think in the first few 5, 8 rounds or so, you just take the best player that is available. Just my strategy, works for me...
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I like to dig into position scarcity and all that uber geeky stuff. I make tons of notes and absorb all sorts of information. I use to run stats through a statistical package I got in grand school but I've calmed down on that.
__________________
Past performance is not indicative of future success.
Never argue with an idiot. They drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.
I know that it's not a direct comparison because those aren't the top OFs, but the drop off isn't as great with the outfielders. If you can get a Reyes/Ramirez, I like that because of the steals and the power. To me, you can get average with a lot of players, and RBI should come with the power. But you need to get enough steals to get by, and then power to win. (I think this approach works best in roto. With head to head, you can do much more tweaking with your final spots to add and subtract guys that are streaky)
Santana, FWIW, is 16-9, 232 K, 3.06 ERA, 1.03 WHIP. No idea if that's AL or NL, but I think that the book was published before the deal, so I wouldn't be surprised to see an updated projection with a few more Ks and slightly lower ERA and WHIP.
Let me know if you want any more numbers on anyone else. I've got an NL only draft next Sunday, an AL only auction the 30th and a mixed league draft Saturday.
__________________
Quoth David Banner: "Like a pimp"
It's not a beer belly. It's a gas tank for a sex machine.
Our league is nuts. $500 buy in, 10 team, mixed league, can keep 3 guys that were drafted after the 10th round, one pick up per month. The guys in it have been doing this league since before I was born. They are ALL statistical nuts, so I'm learning it. But the strategy of taking the best available worked well for me last year, my lineup was a murderers row! My pitching staff was awful. So more balance this year...
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__________________
"It's what you've got inside that matters. The details and technological things will take you only so far. You still have to pedal the bike. Some people are always looking for the magic secret. There's no secret. Just bust your ass." -Dave Zabriskie
(order taken. Keepers were two rounds before they were drafted previously. Lincecum was a FA last season. Starters' positions in parentheses.)(Should also add that this is a H2H league; and the strategies I listed above really weren't applicable. There was nothing at position scarce spots that dissuaded me from taking best available when it was my turn. I had the seventh choice)
D. Wright (3B)
B. Webb (SP)
J. Mauer (C)
V. Wells (OF)
A. Harang (SP)
F. Hernandez (keeper) (SP)
J. Nathan (RP)
A. Hill (2B)
C. Pena (1B)
J. Dye (OF)
J. Valverde (RP)
J. Hermida (OF)
J.J. Hardy (SS)
W. Tavares
A. Gordon (keeper) (Util)
J. Bruce
B. Arroyo (P)
D. Price
C. Kershaw
T. Lincecum (keeper) (P)
J. Cruz
And for shits and grins, here's the projections for them. (Bruce, Price and Kershaw taken from Baseball Prospectus based on a full season. Everything else is from Ron Shandler)
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