The coming college crunch

[gardener]

Does anyone else here read the weekly Chronicle of Higher education (one of the best periodicals in the country)?

In this week’s issue, there’s an article titled “No Room in the Class,” with the subtitle “as student populations explode in some states, public colleges struggle to find enough places--even gpt high achievers.”

A bit into the article, we are told that politicians and families are increasingly worried that large numbers of students may be kept out of college by two factors. One is tuition, which has increased over the past decade at a rate that far, far outstrips inflation and rising income levels. The other is demographics. “Demand for slots at public institutions is growing, with the children of baby boomers and increasing numbers of immigrants arriving on college campuses in droves."

The number of students graduating from high school will peak in 2009 at 3.2 million, a 10.3 increase since 2002. Even though the number will slack off slightly after 2009, “the crunch is not likely to ease because state and college leaders are pressing to increase the college-going rate, given the growing importance of a degree for getting a good job and of an educated populace for fueling state economies.”

The result? One upshot is that students whose grades, SATs, and other items would have earned them admission to a prestigious state institution in 2002 will be denied admission in 2005. By 2007, they may not be admitted to much less prestigious schools. There will be pressure on community colleges to take up the slack--and these are already bursting at the seams, as at Northern Virginia Community College, whose enrollment over the past 4 years has grown by 10 per cent--to, at present, an astounding 64,000.

The result, further, is that a student who graduated in the top 10 percent of his or her class, with SATs of 1500 and a solid B+ average may not be admitted to a four-year college for an A.B. or a B.S.

Another article in the CHE, by Gordon Davies, the former head of Virginia’s state council of higher education, proposes several remedies, including establishing 3-year baccalaureate degrees, as in the UK, a more standardized curriculum, required summer school, more online courses, and so on.

But I propose something more radical--erasing in the public mind the idea that everyone should get a college or university degree--or even go to college.

The tendency toward higher education for almost everybody seems to have begun in 1947, and rightly so, with the GI Bill assuring returning WW II veterans a chance to earn a college degree.

I grew up in Dallas. My mother, valedictorian of her high school class, had only one year of further education, at SMU. My father was also there for a year of fraternity parties--and then flunked out. In my generation (b. in 1930s) at my suburban high school there was an almost universal expectation of college or university attendance. under conditions far from those that prevail today. I got into Duke University with only fair grades. Tuition, room, and board were rather modest by today’s standards.

There has grown up in this country the idea that lifetime income depends on educational level achieved--and a parallel idea that personal worth, not just financial standing, depends on a college degree, preferably from a first- or second-tier institution.

I have benefited personally from these ideas, spending some 40 years as a teacher in several colleges or universities, all public save one. But the longer I taught, the less sure I was of the benefits of four years of higher education for many students. (Anyone who asked “do I have to know this for the exam?” probably couldn’t benefit much from the classes I taught.) Furthermore, I have made friends with a number of young male craftsmen--carpenters, masons, painters, and so on--who are bright, intelligent, and exceptionally well-informed about the world. Such people sometimes apologize for what they wrongly think are lacks and deficiencies.

The pressures seem to be getting worse and worse. My sons were athletes in high school. One was valedictorian. The other had a solid B average. They had time in high school for unstructured activities, what’s now called hanging out--and they went on long bicycle trips. My grandkids have no unscheduled time. They’re all involved with team sports, music lessons, karate classes--and the unspoken agenda here, I think, is enriching their applications for admission to college.
What if one of them decides not to go? I hate the idea that he or she will take that as a sign of failure or inadequacy.

One more thing...I suspect colleges and universities would be much more interesting places if some 18-year-olds decided not to go, spent 10 or 20 years out in the world, and then became students. They would know what they wanted, as many young freshmen do not.

[Q.]

As you know, gardener, I work at a university. What you wouldn't know is that I had a project we did published in the Chronicle... and that's the only one that I've actually read!

I know my school continually raises admissions standards, as do the other public universities in Texas, to try to control the number of students admitted... but they are all bursting at the seams as it is. One problem has been the 10% rule (was Ross Perot involved with this one or just "No Pass, No Play" ...?) that allows all high school students in the top 10% of their class automatic admission into State schools. Of course, even that doesn't guarantee a student prepared for college. When Geo W. was Gov., the bar was raised for public schools which forced them to "teach the test" even more to produce their quotas for standardized test scores... or lose their jobs. SURPRISE! The State's standardized test scores went up overall... but not the SAT and ACT scores... hmmmmmm.

Anyway, another example of grade inflation. I've also taught classes the past few years and have not been at all impressed with the level of education of incoming students (I was in the same boat at that age). I guess I would like for everyone to be able to have access to higher education but, as you said, we should equally value the skills of others who do not finish college. I think Bill Gates would agree.

[kuri]

I'm not sure of the statistics nationwide but I know that most California state schools are at capacity and will be decreasing enrollment for fall 2004. Couple that with an approx %30 hike in undergrad tuition and a proposed 40% hike for grads (whos paying for the energy scandal now!)

Damn glad I started off at a junior college with the tuition offset by Pell Grants.