Long post warning...
No, I'm not saying you can predict your 1RM. I'm talking about choosing the right amount of weight on sets 1, 2, and 3 so that you can hit your goal amount on the 4th set. Too much weight too early wears you out. Too little weight doesn't prepare your body for the 1RM. In other words, if I wanted to hit 225 pounds on set 4, I might do one of these combinations:
- 165 x 6, 200 x 1, 185 x 6, 225 x 1
- 170 x 6, 210 x 1, 180 x 6, 225 x 1
- 175 x 6, 205 x 1, 195 x 6, 225 x 1
For me, it seemed that I performed best when I selected weights such that the 1RM increased by roughly the same amount each set. For example,
165 x 6 -> 1RM = 191.6
200 x 1 -> 1RM = 200 (+8.4 from previous set)
185 x 6 -> 1RM = 214 (+14 from previous set)
225 x 1 -> 1RM = 225 (+11 from previous set)
However, it's possible that for someone else, it might be best to increase only between sets 1 and 2 and between set 3 and 4, like this:
170 x 6 -> 1RM = 197.4
210 x 1 -> 1RM = 210 (+12.6 from previous set)
180 x 6 -> 1RM = 209 (about the same as previous set)
225 x 1 -> 1RM = 225 (+16 from previous set)
Or, maybe someone else does best when they increase 1RM only between sets 2 and 3, like this:
175 x 6 -> 1RM = 203
205 x 1 -> 1RM = 205 (about the same as previous set)
195 x 6 -> 1RM = 226 (+21 from previous set)
225 x 1 -> 1RM = 225 (about the same as previous set)
Looking at
your workout from 4-22-08, which seemed to be one you were happy with:
160 x 6 -> 1RM = 185.8
170 x 1 -> 1RM = 170 (-15.8 from previous set)
165 x 5 -> 1RM = 185.6 (+15.6 from previous set)
175 x 1 -> 1RM = 175 (-10.6 from previous set)
So, it looks like your 1RM jumped up and down between different sets. That just makes me wonder:
- Would you have done better or worse if your 1RM increased steadily with each set, like mine tend to do?
- Would I do better or worse if my 1RM went up and down, like yours did in this particular workout?
- Can differences between people be accounted for in a personalized 1RM function?
- Can differences between exercises be accounted for in an exercise-customized 1RM function?
Again, this isn't meant to be some new scientific theory. I'm an engineer, so I can't help but analyze and optimize. This is more a thought experiment than anything else.
Regardless of whether or not this half-cocked theory is true at all, though, I can definitely say that it is worth analyzing your numbers to see what works for you and what doesn't.