I'm no expert here by any means but offhand I'd say that a diet break is in order if it's been 15 weeks. I don't see how that could hurt. Even if it isn't the problem right now you may be needing one soon anyway so this might be a good time to take one.
My guess would be water retention/inflammation from your new routine considering you're sore from NROLW. It looks like you only recently started that program. Even if you were weight training prior to 6/12 it must be different enough from your previous exercise since you're sore. It sounds like some can handle the program while in a deficit and others cannot. I'm not a big fan of changing too many things all at once I think it makes it harder to figure out what helps and what doesn't. For some switching to NROLW is a pretty major change in and of itself and if this is the case for you... At this point I'd probably just wait and see how you do overall with NROLW before changing anything other than a break.
If you're still stalled after adjusting to NROLW then maybe look at overall calories. You're 18 lbs lighter. Congratulations.
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