Doug
First off, Kudos on the progress you have made. That is what you should focus on more. You are making progress. Aofie said you are over thinking, and I would play sematics and say there is nothing wrong with over thinking it is the over analysing when you have poor data to work with (BF measurements that are possible inaccurate).
So if you are losing weight, and your lifting numbers on the same kind of routine are going up, you are probably not losing muscle (or a great amount). Since you are new to lifting you can possibly gain muscle and lose fat at the same time. Even if you do lose some muscle, you are more importantly losing BF.
Use BF for LONG TERM trends not "day to day" or "week to week" comparisons. Hey take a big dump and watch you BF go down
- seriously there are too many things that will affect the "day to day" or "week to week" measurements (BF and Weight) .
1) Look in the mirror,
2) try on your "fattie" clothes and see how big they are, and
3) look at your lifting numbers going up.
If these three indicators are good, then keep at it.
Cheers
Peter
PS
I have a "fattie" belt. I was in New York and dropped into an Armani shop and too my great shame could not buy any pants- I was too fat (at about 5'7", 35 inch waist) I bought the only thing I could, a belt, buckled on the second to biggest hole! Yikes. I am actually wearing the same belt (my wife says throw it out already it looks ridiculous). IT was a 5-hole belt, and I have punched three holes in it. I have to fold it back under because it reaches my hip. Now I have "porked up" a bit (so I am using the 2nd to smallest hole (about 31.5") but when I am leaner, I weer it at the smallest hole around 29.5 ish.
This belt has beeb a great "state of the nation" gauge for me.