I'd do HGM. Waterbury's programs are somewhat advanced (or intermediate anyway). Just being a bastard and passing judgement at your weight I'd guess that you've not been lifting steadily for 6 months or more, haven't been eating heartily for 6 months or more, and don't know how to organize the smaller programs to meet the needs that you might be facing at the end of any individual piece.
That's why I'd go with HGM. After you finish you'll have paid some of your dues, you'll be a little smarter, and a little better prepared to do some of the smaller duration programs.
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